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CNBC
Nov 29, 2012 3:00pm EST
fundamentals of the u.s. economy. >> maybe, and that's just today, right, ron? >> been since last week. >> we were talking about the market really being so sensitive to any rhetoric out of washington. >> i'm not saying it's not hostage to headlines. we'll get intraday volatility. from the monday before thank giving until now, we have effectively wiped out the losses we saw post-election. >> rick, how do you see it? market complacency, too much angst, are we overthinking this? how do you read the market right now? >> i think that the low volume movements of the equity markets aren't really telling you any information. there's no way even in aggregate a market could decide what's going on in harry reid or john boehner's brain in anything is going on in begin with. if you look at treasuries overlaid on top of equities, until mr. boehner's comments, the treasuries have taken the big picture on all of this. they're not going anywhere fast. fiscal cliff is important, but there's a lot of issues for the next several years that are going to be important to the treasury market. once his comments were
CNBC
Dec 7, 2012 3:00pm EST
. >> austin, it's clear from this jobs report the economy is stuck in second gear. what's it going to take to get to a higher gear right now, do you think? >> i think we got to get the growth rate up in the economy. certainly europe's not any help. what's happening in china and japan is not any help. then you add on top of it what's coming out of washington. i don't think you should get your hopes up about figuring it out before the end of this year. i think there's a pretty deept chance we go over the cliff and then try to sort it out in the beginning of the year. >> lovely. >> joe, when did 146,000 jobs become good? have we become so pessimistic -- have our expectations come so low we're cheering 146,000 when we should be well over 200? >> plus the downward revisions for the previous two months. >> although, those revisions were almost all in government. mandy makes a good point. 150,000 a month, which has been the average over the past is a months or so, is not great. if this was a normal recovery, we'd be growing at 4% instead of 2 on gdp. employment would be well over 250. however, th
CNBC
Dec 6, 2012 3:00pm EST
. call me an optimist, but i think things are going to get better. the economy is strong. it's going to get stronger. >> what evidence do you have these guys are not just going to go over the fiscal cliff? we heard tim geithner on this program yesterday when steve asked him, look f you don't get what you want, do we go over the fiscal cliff? he said absolutely. >> he said he would do it! >> what happens when we wake up january nd, we go over the cliff, and the world doesn't end? >> that is so irresponsible. >> you have to be a long-term investor. long-term stocks have outperformed bonds. >> with all do respect, george, are you one of those come play september investors larry is referring to? >> i'd say we're opposite of that. we never take anything for granted, but we bet accordingac. bonds are trouble. a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money in bonds. you have to be prepared for that. interest rates are going to go up. dividends are going to continue to increase. the economy in this country is strong. it's going to get stronger. >> even at 44% dividend tax? >> it's not going t
CNBC
Dec 3, 2012 3:00pm EST
appreciates just how bad this was for the economy. this is a multiyear low reading in the manufacturing numbers. we haven't seen a number like this since 2009. we haven't seen an employment index number like this since september of 2009, the last time it was at this level, unemployment, 9.8%. we have a nonfarm payrolls number coming out on friday. you'll be lucky to see a positive number in front of that. i don't see how the market overcomes that kind of thing. independent of all this jibber jabber over the fiscal cliff, the economy is in really rough shape now. >> it is. we're seeing businesses cut back, getting ready for the eventuality they see coming, no deal by december 31st this worsening. sam, how do you want to be invested in 2013? where is the growth in the economy coming from, if anywhere? >> i think the growth is coming from an improvement in the housing sector. i think we are starting to see a slowdown in the job loss from the government sector. so, i think we're going to be seeing a better than half speed recovery. so, you do want to be taking a balanced approach. we do fav
CNBC
Dec 4, 2012 3:00pm EST
economy. >> it's interesting you say that. i feel like one day we're going to back and say, remember whe could borrow at 3% to buy a house. if companies have to borrow the money to pay a dividend, why issue a dividend? >> well, i think we forgot whose money it is. it's the shareholders' money through the company. tax law makes it very difficult to bring the money back in. they've already made the money selling their products and service around the world. so it's much cheaper with low interest rates the way they are to borrow the money and pay the dividends to the shareholders. the tax code actually just represents a very inefficient methodology of transferring the profits to the shareholders as well as influencing where companies are likely to be looking for future profits around the world. >> they've talked in washington periodically about a moratorium on allowing corporations to repatriate some of that money without a tax a consequence. that would help to some degree, wouldn't it? >> absolutely. that would be a very fabulous thing to do. the companies have already made the money, it's
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 3:00pm EST
the fiscal cliff could have on the economy here, mark? >> honestly, we're essentially sector agnostic with we talk about managing money on a five-year duration for our clients. when you look at some of the master limited partnerships that are out there, the kinder morgans, specter energy looks like a good play. we're looking at the 4% to 5% yielders, companies that have a good track record of increasing those yields. we're sticking more with consumer staples. we're definitely tilted towards that defensive end. but we're going to stay there. as long as growth is slow, that's where we feel we can get the best risk adjusted returns for our clients. >> all right. thanks for joining us. mark, good to see you. rick, have a good weekend. gordon, have a good time at the beacon tonight. we're less than an hour from the trade month. kayla rounds up november's big winners and losers. >> hey, bill. the indices may have danced along the flat line for the entire month, but there were clear winners and losers on either side of the tape. to the downside, several companies falling markedly. exelon dow
CNBC
Dec 5, 2012 3:00pm EST
. will the white house let our economy go over the fiscal cliff if a deal on higher tax rates for the wealthy is not reached? we're checking it out. back in a moment. [ male announcer ] research suggests cell health plays a key role throughout our lives. one a day men's 50+ is a complete multivitamin designed for men's health concerns as we age. it has 7 antioxidants to support cell health. one a day men's 50+. it's easy to follow the progress you're making toward all your financial goals. a quick glance, and you can see if you're on track. when the conversation turns to knowing where you stand, turn to us. wells fargo advisors. >>> welcome back. this very public negotiation on the fiscal cliff still does not seem to be closing in on a deal. the white house out in campaign style events regularly, making multiple media appearances, kle including timothy geithner right here in 25 minutes. >> but would things be done faster if it was done privately? in his latest column, jeff goldfor a compares u.s. budget talks to merger proxy battles. jeff joins us to explain about that. plus, we have
CNBC
Dec 6, 2012 4:00pm EST
do you think we come out on the fiscal cliff? are you expecting the economy to go over the fiscal cliff and see these taxes go high hadder and spending cuts take effect? >> my personal view is i'm still optimistic. i think the conversation has been constructive since. do we have a solution on the table yet? no. but i'm optimistic we'll get to a framework. >> why? >> there's been enough dialogue. there's been movement. everyone seems to recognize the problem. everybody realizes there has to be a revenue component, spend component, entitlement reform component. for us, the business community and all the ceos, certainty is the greatest stimulus for us. >> do you support tax rates going higher? >> me personally, as an individual, more importantly the business community, which i'm part of. we support something inclusive. if rates were higher in a videocasset vacuum, i'm not sure we'd be supportive of that. we have to make sure the consumers, those who spends a lot of the dollars, the middle class, are protected in this exercise. >> i guess the question i'm really getting at is, do you
FOX Business
Dec 6, 2012 3:00pm EST
is going to announce some kind of treasury buying program to stimulate the economy and keep rates low and that will favor stocks so stocks will take care of what is going on in the treasury market. liz: cap it with the hurricanes and the effect which a reverse from negative to positive at some point. >> you saw jobless claims are up but sandy will handicap it a bit. we will won't see a clean job number until next year. once again it will be at my number and will be waiting for the fed. >> oil coming downn it is simply a story of a lot of supply, less demand. >> that has been the story for the last year. we had plenty of demand, plenty of supply, demand is only deteriorated as we have gone through the year and entering the season without a lot of driving going on. when you take out the fear we have of things going on in syria or iran you see us treating at $78 as opposed to where we are now but -- [talking over each other] liz: when you push it out a couple months to the future of the market and look at the trend -- >> it looks to me like we should be trading $3 or $4 or $6 or $8 l
CNBC
Dec 3, 2012 4:00pm EST
deal but it's bad for the economy, the millionaire population would drop by 26,000 millionaires. if we get a deal and it's good for the economy, millionaires would grow by 230,000 and their fortunes would soar by $1 trillion. yo under score the cost of the cliff, if no threat of a cliff at all, the number of millionaires would grow by 443,000, a 9% increase. the difference between no cliff and going over the cliff is more than 750,000 millionaires, or about $1.3 trillion in worth, the gdp of canada. i'm looking at the impact of economic growth on millionaires, not attacks which could reduce that growth but a cliff deal alone could be worth $1 trillion in new wealth and new millionaires. another reason why the folks in washington should keep on talking. >> really interesting stuff. so, while we have you, robert, let's talk about what we learned on oracle, announcing plans to pay out second quarter, third quarter and fourth quarter dividends this month. what is ceo larry ellison's cut on this? is it $199 million as reported a minute ago? >> it sounds like it's around $200 million. you
FOX Business
Dec 4, 2012 3:00pm EST
auto industry. copper gets its ph.d. in economics and if the economy is moving one way or another like china you might see copper moving lower but for the moment it needs to be that one area that sees a little strength. in terms of the broader market let's look at stocks would fall as a classes covered for you. it is a mixed bag. you can see microsoft straddling the flat wine. otherwise mcdonald's moving higher, banc of america, decent tech names like hewlett-packard flexing their muscles as well. hewlett-packard jumping 3%, $0.56, bottom fishing going on there, some of the story and until up nearly 2%, verizon and at&t are the weak links along with jpmorgan chase. traders at the stock exchange, cme group and nynex, gold traded as well, when gold dropped $26 overnight and continues through the day what was it like, floor? >> those guys were pretty busy today but $26 is not a huge move for $1,700 product. but clearly something is going on. liz: if it goes below $1,700 which is one of those levels gold bugs look at, that becomes a big deal. >> people have a love affair with round numbers
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 4:00pm EST
fundamentals in the u.s. economy are clearly improving, and you also have a stabilization or soft landing happening in china at the same time. >> david kelly, what do you want to be doing here? what's your strategy for the fiscal cliff? do you think we go over it, and what do you want to do? >> for a long-term investor, you don't try and play this one. i agree with stephanie about the market probably going higher once they get a resolution. they will get a resolution. it's possible it could go into early january. i still think they're more likely to get a resolution done before the end of the year. either way, they'll get a resolution done. when that happens, then we'll resort to looking at the u.s. economy, which is strengthening a bit here. also, the extreme and relative valuations between high-quality fixed income and equities will push money towards equities. i would not run for cover here because of the volatility. i think you just have to, you know, hold your ground through this and hope that the market moves higher next year. >> bob, this activity at the close today, you su
FOX Business
Dec 3, 2012 3:00pm EST
imperfect, but fair one without hurting our economy and creating jobs. today, the white house has demanded an offer from republicans. they now have one. back to you. llri: rich edson, and he thinks. the market is taking a breather today. dupont and 3m are the biggest draggers on the dow. early stocks rising out of the gate out of some good news out of china over the night. hitting a seven month high, but then the u.s. isf number hit at 10:00 a.m. eastern and a wave of selling. manufacturing activity contracted in november. they say the factory index came in at 49.5 in november. down from almost 52 and october. keep in mind, any number below 50 means contraction. above 50 equals expansion. investors are still worried about tax treatment and dead deals. exelon, the worst of the bunch our first guest has seen it all. the u.s. economy they fall into a recession next year even if congress strikes a budget deal by year end. joining us from stanford, california, martin feldstein. thank you for being with us. the republicans now responding. negotiations well underway to avoid a fiscal cli
FOX Business
Dec 7, 2012 3:00pm EST
, you do nothing. those are the major implementations for the economy. cheryl: i can hear the hesitancy in your voice. a lot of our guests are saying the same thing. they are afraid of what washington will do or maybe not do. your outlook is a bit more bullish than some of your colleagues. what are you saying in the second half of 2013 that others are not? >> on a very short-term basis, we have noticed there are a couple of things. the fiscal cliff. we cannot get out of the way of that. if you look at to the second half of 2013 that we can get some resolution, we may not like the total resolution, but if we can, you move past a period of uncertainty. three things have started in 2012 that could accelerate in 2013. housing is key. cheryl: it has done incredibly well this year. >> the second aspect is what is going on with the energy field, in terms of technology and energy less dependence for the u.s. the third factor is what is going on in manufacturing. you can talk about the creation of jobs in the u.s. economy. if you can get the u.s. economy past this model through environ
CNBC
Dec 5, 2012 4:00pm EST
. economy is the most vibrant, adaptable, innovative and creative economy on the planet. i think that means we're coming out and starting to see that in many sectors today. we're bullish and think you need to look at this on a positive frame. >> maria, i'm less bullish than that. that sounds very optimistic. i would love to believe that, but if you compare valuations of equities versus bonds, yes, there's a huge spread right now, but that doesn't necessarily make equities really cheap. it's just a relative trade. i think, also, yes, we're a vibrant economy. we certainly are a strong economy. i think it's really unsustainable, the level of debt that we have in this country. we have $1 trillion in debt. i heard an incredibly succinct way of describing this. rick santelli actually said it this morning about how you can't say you're cutting $800 billion when really $80 billion is really from wars that are just going away. that's not really a cut. that's taking away the addition. i think you need to be pretty conservative. i think there's going to be a rally here year end, but you have to
CNBC
Nov 29, 2012 4:00pm EST
your fiscal cliff strategy? what do you want to do with your money in the economy does go off the fiscal cliff? >> yeah, we were worried about that back in september, october. so even though we like the equity markets going into 2013, we wanted to hedge ourselves a little bit, so we took money out of equities. didn't just put it into cash. we put it into three areas we think are still good long term. one is we talk about emerging market equities, but i like emerging market debt. these monetary authorities are done tightening. they fought the inflationary problem that they had successfully. they're in hoed. yield curves could shift down. we stress doing it in local currency. the other areas are u.s. high yield, which i still think is valuable. we do think spreads will contract and emerging market equities as well. >> jordan, what about you? how are you preparing for what could be an eventuality where we go over the cliff and we've got to deal with higher taxes and a slower economy? a lot of people expecting recession in 2013, if, in fact, this occurs. >> think about what works well
FOX Business
Nov 29, 2012 3:00pm EST
economy has a tail wind, the market is fundamentally attracted, the valuations are reasonable. you have earnings growth. if we can bridge the fiscal cliff and get a comprehensive tax reform and entitlement reform, you would see a market significantly higher. tracy: we have had some earnings that look positively dismal. it is a very big pricey discretionary product, but they miss earnings, that is a real fundamental, isn't it? speak we still have the s&p profit growth that is positive. you cannot continue to have double-digit earnings growth as he diyou did for 10 consecutive quarters. if we get through this cliff in the back half of 13, gdp growth rate accelerates as we anticipate and profit growth as well. tracy: if your liking big multinationals, you don't like europe yet you like the multinationals. help me wrap my mind around that. >> u.s. large caps are cheap, most of those in mall to nationals. but they don't deserve to be cheap. it is going to be a while before you get any sustained growth. you can't make that case the multinationals. it is relatively speaking a small part.
CNBC
Dec 7, 2012 4:00pm EST
much uncertainty in washington. we do have slowing economies in europe and in the u.s. >> right. david, what do you say right now? break the tie for us. >> break the tie. in the near term, there's an epic tug of war between extremely aggressive monetary easing and just total disdain for what they're doing in washington on tax and regulatory policy. in the near term, the fiscal cliff prevails. in the longer term, the fed will prevail. there's so much mistrust on stocks that i think that still can be a positive catalyst for stocks relative to traditional bonds over the next 12 months. >> i'm going to push back a little bit on that. >> i'm going to break the tie in ralph's favor. >> david, i want to push back a little bit on that. in terms of -- like, is the fed really that much of a factor these days now in terms of keeping the market afloat? >> absolutely. >> it's not losing its bang for its buck? >> it's not as powerful as it was in the fall of 2008 or even 2010, but when you consider that, u.s., long bonds, 1.5%. short-term interest rates, zero. negative on an inflation adjuste
CNBC
Dec 4, 2012 4:00pm EST
happen in terms of the markets. do you expect the economy to go over the fiscal cliff? what kind of reaction might we see in the market if that were to materialize? >> well, if we saw the market sell off in a big way, i don't think anybody believes we're going to go over the fiscal cliff. there will be some sort of resolution. they'll come up with some tax cuts, some breaks in spending, and probably kick the can down the road on a lot of it. i love the way this market is acting. it's not selling off with all the bad news, all the bickering, all the bad words on each side. you've got to love the way that this market is holding up here. doesn't mean investors need to be carefree, but overall, it looks like the market is setting up with a lot of negative sentiment out there. looks like there's a lot of opportunity for a big run higher once we get some form of resolution. i really believe we're going to get it. >> you think by year end? >> i really do. i think they want to go home for christmas. they're not going to want to not go home for christmas. you can always count on politicians
FOX Business
Dec 5, 2012 3:00pm EST
go. it has no story. it is concerned with austerity. if we get forced austerity on the economy and we go over what is called the cliff, we will not stay over that cliff very long. he will not worry about what happens to the debt ceiling. i think you have a mixture here. what is that almost looks good. less spending, more income. liz: gold, of course, which was down $25. ended down on the session. you also make the point over stocks overall. is this all apple and sort of the paul because of the samsung problems. >> even though apple is getting smashed today. when you consider how much apple is part of the s&p 500, it just speaks to the strength that we have. about 11:00 o'clock, we had that sharp turn up. i think a lot of that had to do with some of the noises we were hearing out of china. take a look at that etf. that is very strong. one other sector i want to put everybody on to is utilities. utilities are very strong today for a couple of reasons. they really lagged the s&p in november. some of the noises that are we are starting to hear out of the fiscal cliff discussions mailin
Search Results 0 to 19 of about 20